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The Bitcoin price has experienced a significant correction after failing to consolidate above the $70,000 level and retesting its all-time high of $73,700, which it reached in March. With a retracement of nearly 10% over the past week, BTC is now trading just above support at the $60,000 level.
However, based on historical data, further price drops may be expected in the coming days, aligning with patterns observed before explosive bull runs.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has compiled data showing the depth and length of retracements during previous market cycles. Historical patterns show retracements of approximately -23% (February 2023), -21% (April/May 2023), -22% (July/September 2023), -21% (January 2024), -23.6% (April/May 2024), and the current -16% retracement.
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Notably, the current retracement has not yet reached the average depth or length. Considering these statistics, Bitcoin could potentially retrace a further 6% to a trading price of $56,400.
Additionally, the downtrend may continue for the next seven days until July 1st, possibly marking the final retrace below the sub $60,000 levels before a potential restart of the bull run and explosive price gains.
However, the Bitcoin Crosby Ratio, a key indicator, is approaching the oversold territory. Throughout Bitcoin’s history, this has often signaled crucial reversal points for the cryptocurrency. Notably, the last time this occurred, Bitcoin rallied over 190% from approximately $25,000 to new all-time highs above $73,000.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold zone for the fourth time since the $15,500 bottom reached in November 2022. In the past, such occurrences have frequently preceded rallies, resulting in gains of over 100%.
Time To Buy The Dip?
Renowned market expert Ali Martinez has identified a compelling correlation between Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) Ratio and subsequent price jumps.
The MVRV Ratio is a metric that compares the market capitalization of Bitcoin to the realized value of its coins. It provides insights into whether Bitcoin holders are at a profit or loss based on when they acquired their coins.
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When the MVRV Ratio dips into negative territory, it suggests that many Bitcoin holders are in unrealized losses, potentially indicating an attractive buying opportunity.
Analyzing the historical data, Martinez observed a consistent pattern where Bitcoin’s price experienced notable jumps following MVRV Ratio dips below -8.40%.
On four occasions, these dips were followed by price surges of 63%, 100%, 92%, and 28%, respectively. These findings indicate that periods of negative MVRV Ratios can indicate strong market support and a subsequent bullish trend.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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