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The 2024 US presidential election is decided. Donald Trump will get a second term, defeating Kamala Harris. In the midst of election night, the Bitcoin price rose to a new all-time high of $75,407 on Binance.
The euphoria is driven by Trump’s big election promises. He wants to establish Bitcoin as a national strategic stockpile, fire Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler and generally enforce a crypto-friendly policy. While a Harris victory would have meant a short-term setback for Bitcoin according to most experts, the predictions by the majority of experts are extremely bullish thanks to the Trump victory.
However, renowned economist Henrik Zeberg offers a cautionary perspective. Zeberg warns that Trump’s proposed economic policies could precipitate a US recession, leading to a “blow-off top” scenario for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Central to his argument is Trump’s plan to replace certain taxes with tariffs to stimulate domestic economic growth.
Is A Bitcoin Blow-Off Top Scenario Looming?
Drawing parallels with historical events, Zeberg suggests that Trump’s tariff strategy could echo the economic missteps of the 1920s and 1930s. In a post on X, he shared a link to the Wikipedia page for the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. He stated: “Now everything is lined up for history to repeat itself. US Tariffs implemented into a Recession—reinforcing the downturn and popping the Greatest Bubble ever.”
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The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is widely regarded as a catalyst that deepened the Great Depression. By substantially increasing US tariffs on imported goods, the act prompted retaliatory tariffs from other nations, leading to a severe contraction in international trade. This protectionist spiral exacerbated global economic decline, resulting in heightened unemployment and prolonged hardship worldwide.
Amid these economic concerns, Zeberg has projected a significant, yet potentially short-lived, surge in Bitcoin’s price. “Making it Simple! BTC target 115-123K,” he asserted via X a few days ago. His analysis is grounded in Fibonacci extension levels—a technical analysis tool used to predict future price movements based on historical price patterns.
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According to Zeberg’s analysis, the critical level to monitor is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, calculated at $114,916.16. He suggests that this level is “very likely the top,” indicating that Bitcoin could reach this price point before experiencing a significant reversal.
The analysis also notes other key Fibonacci levels that may serve as resistance points during Bitcoin’s ascent. The 0.382 level at $77,437.88 marks a significant initial resistance following the breakout from the previous all-time high.
The 0.618 level at $85,205.47 could act as minor resistance as the price climbs. Additionally, the 1.0 level at $107,435.71 represents a crucial psychological and technical threshold, while the 1.27 level at $123,148.19 indicates a possible overshoot beyond the primary target zone.
An annotation on Zeberg’s chart poses the question, “58% in less than 3 months into the top?” This suggests he anticipates a rapid price increase within a relatively short time frame, consistent with historical patterns.
At press time, BTC traded at $73,742.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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