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Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently discussed the inflows the US Spot Ethereum ETFs could attract. Specifically, he stated how much could flow into these funds in their first 18 months of trading.
Spot Ethereum ETFs To Record $15 Billion In First 18 Months Of Trading
Hougan mentioned in a note to investors that the Spot Ethereum ETFs could record $15 billion in net inflows in their first 18 months of trading. He elaborated on how he arrived at these figures to show that it wasn’t just a guess. First, Hougan highlighted the market capitalizations of Bitcoin and Ethereum and stated that he expects investors to allocate to their respective exchange-traded products (ETPs) in proportion to their market caps.
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Hougan noted that US investors have, so far, invested $56 billion in Spot Bitcoin ETPs and expects that figure to reach $100 billion or more by the end of 2025, when these funds should have matured further and be approved on platforms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.
Using this as a reference, Bitwise’s CIO stated that the Spot Ethereum ETFs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to stay on par with the Bitcoin ETFs, which he believes could take about 18 months to happen. Hougan also highlighted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs will already have $10 billion in assets upon launch, thanks to the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which will convert to an ETF on launch day.
Therefore, Hougan noted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs are now left with $25 billion in inflows to reach parity with the amount of inflows the Spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to reach by 2025 year-end. Hougan then highlighted data from the international ETP markets to show that investors may be allocating to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs roughly in line with their market caps.
Using The International Markets As A Point Of Reference
According to Hougan, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs in Europe hold €4,601 and €1,305 in assets under management (AuM), which translates to 78% and 22% of the aggregate available funds in both markets. Similarly, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs in Canada have $4,942 CAD (77%) and $1,475 CAD (23%) respectively.
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Working with Ethereum’s ETP market share in Canada, Hougan estimated that the US Spot Ethereum ETFs could also get 22% of the US market. Based on this, Hougan lowered the estimate of net inflows for the Spot Ethereum ETFs from $25 billion to $18 billion, excluding Grayscale’s assets.
Hougan eventually lowered the estimated net inflows to $15 billion by factoring in the fact that a significant portion of the flows into the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs are related to carry trades. He removed $10 billion of carry trade-related AuM from the Bitcoin market, lowering his estimates for Bitcoin from $100 billion to $90 billion and for the Spot Ethereum ETFs from $18 billion to $15 billion.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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