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The crypto market faced a significant setback today as the Bitcoin price dropped below the $93,000 threshold. After reaching an all-time high of $99,588 on Binance last Friday, the leading cryptocurrency has fallen over 6%, hitting a low of $92,326. In the past 24 hours alone, the Bitcoin price has decreased by 3.6%. Analysts attribute this decline to three main factors:
#1 Massive Bitcoin Profit-Taking
As Bitcoin neared the critical $100,000 resistance level, many long-term holders began taking profits, leading to increased selling pressure. James “Checkmate” Check, former chief on-chain analyst at Glassnode, noted that long-term holders have distributed $60 billion worth of Bitcoin supply in the last 30 days.
“Bitcoin Long-Term Holders have distributed $60B worth of supply in the last 30-days. Out of all the LTH supply moved since the FTX bottom, 21% of it has happened in November. This is the heaviest profit taking we have seen so far this cycle,” Check writes via X.
He also points out that selling pressure is not coming from “OG’s” but holders who bought at the previous peak of $68,000 have sold 198,000 BTC in November alone. This suggests that investors who endured the last major correction are now capitalizing on the recent price surge as Bitcoin approached uncharted price territory.
#2 Long Liquidation Event
The futures market has seen substantial liquidations, amplifying the Bitcoin price crash. Data from Coinglass indicates that in the past 24 hours, total liquidations amounted to $577.39 million, with long positions accounting for $468.98 million.
Singapore-based QCP Capital commented on the situation: “Bitcoin has slipped below $93k since our last commentary, with over $430 million in long liquidations.” They observed that this decline coincided with spot ETFs ending their five-day streak of net inflows, recording a $438 million outflow on Monday, while MicroStrategy’s stock dropped another 4.4%.
QCP Capital also mentions that “the pullback follows MicroStrategy’s record $5.4 billion BTC purchase last week.” With US holidays approaching and no immediate catalysts to drive prices higher, they noted that Bitcoin’s path to the symbolic $100,000 level has stalled.
The firm also notes a shift in market sentiment: “ETH implied volatility has shifted sharply toward puts over calls, reflecting similar sentiment in BTC as the market takes a breather. Growing concerns about downside risks may intensify, particularly with tonight’s FOMC minutes and Wednesday’s PCE data on the horizon.”
Despite the downturn, they provide a balanced perspective: “To put things into perspective, this isn’t an excessive pullback. Bitcoin is merely retracing to levels seen early last week. The market had become extremely overbought since the election with excessive leverage, making a pause inevitable.”
#3 Coinbase Premium Disappears
The Coinbase premium gap, a key indicator of US institutional demand, has vanished. During Bitcoin’s ascent toward $100,000, the premium gap on Coinbase was notably high, reaching +$224 on November 22. This was driven by strong inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs and significant purchases by MicroStrategy, which acquired 55,500 BTC for $5.4 billion over the weekend.
However, this scenario shifted dramatically yesterday. On-chain analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) points out today: “MicroStrategy Single-handedly Held Up the Market. The Coinbase Premium Gap, which was driven by Saylor’s buying spree, vanished, and the market started to tank.”
Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investment, highlights the immense sell wall around the $100,000 level. He remarked that despite MicroStrategy’s massive $5.5 billion purchase, they “only dented the world’s biggest ask wall by ~25%.” This underscores the significant selling interest at the $100,000 level, which has proven to be a formidable barrier.
The diminishing premium on Coinbase also reflects reduced buying pressure from US markets, a factor also evident in the outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Yesterday, spot ETF flows were negative by $435.3 million.
While BlackRock saw inflows of $267.8 million, other major ETFs experienced significant outflows: Bitwise lost $280.7 million, Grayscale BTC Trust (GBTC) saw $158.2 million in outflows, Fidelity faced redemptions of $134.7 million, and ARK Invest shed $110.9 million.
At press time, BTC traded $92,422.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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