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In a research paper dated October 24, Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 by the end of the year if former President Donald Trump secures victory in the upcoming US presidential election.
When Bitcoin Could Hit $125,000
Kendrick’s analysis hinges on the interplay between Bitcoin’s price movements and the US political landscape. “We use daily BTC vol levels and popular strike levels to estimate post-election price moves,” he states in the report titled Bitcoin – Post-US Election Playbook. According to Kendrick, Bitcoin prices have been ascending in recent weeks, aligning with other trades favored by Trump supporters.
The report forecasts that Bitcoin is likely to reach approximately $73,000 by Election Day on November 5, nearing its all-time high of $73,800 recorded in March. “Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around $73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win,” Kendrick notes.
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Betting markets are reflecting increasing confidence in a Trump victory. “The average betting odds of a Trump victory now stand at 59%, according to RealClearPolitics. Furthermore, conditional probabilities in specific betting markets (Polymarket) suggest a 75% chance of a Republican sweep if Trump wins the presidency,” the report highlights.
Should Trump win, Kendrick anticipates immediate bullish momentum for Bitcoin. “Assuming a Trump victory, options break-even implies a further price rise of about 4% when the presidential outcome is known, and around 10% in total within a few more days,” he explains.
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The potential for a Republican sweep of Congress amplifies this outlook. “If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target level of USD 125,000 should come into view,” Kendrick asserts. This scenario is underpinned by significant open interest in Bitcoin call options expiring on December 27 at the $80,000 strike price, suggesting rapid movement toward that level.
What If Harris Wins?
In contrast, if Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, the report suggests a temporary setback for Bitcoin prices. “If Harris wins, we see BTC initially trading lower but still ending 2024 at fresh highs around $75,000,” Kendrick projects. This implies a resilient long-term outlook for Bitcoin regardless of the election outcome, though the magnitude of gains would differ.
Kendrick emphasizes the role of options market data in gauging potential price movements. “Options info helps estimate initial post-election price moves,” he states. The heavy trading volumes and popular strike levels serve as indicators of investor expectations and market positioning ahead of the election.
The recent dip in Bitcoin’s price to a local low of $65,200 was addressed as well. Kendrick believes this is “likely to be the last before the U.S. presidential election,” suggesting that any short-term corrections may be overshadowed by the impending political developments.
At press time, BTC traded at $67,520.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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