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On Monday, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, an influential American investment management firm based in New York with $89.5 billion in assets under management, discussed the current Bitcoin market situation. As the sixth-largest issuer of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with $497 million in recent inflows, VanEck’s analysis on Bitcoin is particularly noteworthy.
In a note for clients, shared on X, Sigel provides insights into the current factors driving the Bitcoin price fluctuations. He attributes the downward pressure of the past days primarily to significant Bitcoin sales by government entities and concerns over the looming large distributions from the Mt. Gox estate.
“The Mt Gox trustee currently holds approximately $8 billion of bitcoins, and they have moved with an aim to distribute about $3 billion worth of the $8 billion,” Sigel explained. He expressed uncertainty regarding whether the creditors, set to receive these distributions from early July, would sell or hold onto their Bitcoins. “Given the precedent set by GBTC, we anticipate that at least a quarter of these coins will be held,” he added.
Sigel further explained the impact on the latest BTC moves by the US and German governments. According to data from Arkham, Germany has liquidated more than half of the 50,000 BTC initially seized from the piracy website Movie2k.
This telegraphed selling has spooked the market, and came at a time where the US government also reduced their BTC holdings. The latter holds a substantial 213,297 BTC (approximately $12 billion). Sigel pointed to a significant transfer of $240 million to Coinbase Prime on June 26th, likely indicating a sale.He also commented on the strategic implications of these sales, suggesting they were possibly made during a market period sensitive to liquidity shortages, such as the US July 4th holiday.
“This weak price action likely reflects spiteful government selling into what was a relatively thin July 4th market, with an overhang of more sales potentially ahead,” he noted. Sigel also referenced recent speculation by Trump advisors on the establishment of a US government strategic Bitcoin reserve, as reported by Forbes, which could signal a massive shift in politics.
Why VanEck Remains Cautious, But Bullish On Bitcoin
Addressing broader market trends, Sigel observed that during bull market phases, Bitcoin rarely falls below its 200-day moving average (MAVG) for more than six weeks. The recent government sales, however, could alter this pattern if they continue or are compounded by other negative news.
Despite these pressures, Sigel remains optimistic about the macroeconomic conditions, citing a deceleration in inflation and a potential soft landing for the US economy. “The upcoming election could catalyze fresh all-time highs in BTC as the market prices in four more years of deficit spending and potentially a friendlier US regulatory backdrop under a Trump administration,” he speculated.
On a global scale, Bitcoin adoption is accelerating, particularly in emerging and frontier markets. Sigel highlighted recent initiatives by Kenya, Ethiopia, and Argentina to utilize government-owned energy resources for Bitcoin mining, indicating a growing recognition of BTC’s potential utility and value.
In conclusion, Sigel reasserted VanEck’s investment strategy, advocating a disciplined approach to BTC allocation within diversified portfolios. “We continue to recommend a dollar cost averaging strategy to buy Bitcoin, considering 6% as a reasonable position size for BTC & ETH in most 60/40 benchmarked portfolios,” he stated.
At press time, BTC traded at $57,252.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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